CURRENCY STRATEGY 29413

EARLIER WE HAD UPDATED TO LONG USD/INR.HOWEVER SL WAS TRIGGERED.  THE MAIN REASONS TO LONG THE PAIR WERE: 

1. WE WERE SLIGHTLY BEARISH ON THE INDIAN MARKETS

2. WE GOT OVER BULLISH ON USD/INR WEEKLY CHART AS SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE PATTERN WAS NOT COMPLETED AND WE HOPED THAT THE PAIR WOULD FORM THE PATTERN. BUT IT DIDN'T AND WITNESSED CORRECTION.

3. DOLLAR INDEX WAS TRADING ABOVE 82.5 ABOVE WHICH WE WERE QUITE BULLISH ON USD AGAINST ITS MAJOR COUNTER PARTS...

NOW TODAY DOLLAR INDEX OPENED BELOW 82.5 AND IS STILL TRADING BELOW 82.5....WE ARE OF THE OPINION THAT CURRENCY LOVERS CAN BUY GBP OR EURO AND SELL USD. GBP/USD HAS GIVEN A VERY POWERFUL BREAK OUT ON A DAILY CHART AND WE THINK IT CAN TGT 1.565 LEVELS IN SHORT TERM. 

USDINR - 14413

The pair again having kissed Rs.55 mark again failed to sustain above the said level. During the week it kissed 54.48 level and managed to close near its support level of Rs.54.7. Still we upheld our bullish view on the USD-INR unless until 54.54 level is broken a weekly basis. Below 54.54 levels 54.3 is the strong support level. Traders who are long on the pair must keep intraday SL of 54.3. So as long as 54.54 is in tact on weekly closing basis or 54.3 is in tact on Intraday basis longs should be carried. Our short term TGTs 55.20-55.35-55.85.....

 

 

 

 

USD-INR UPDATES 7413

THE  PAIR EXPIRED ON A VERY POSITIVE NOTE DURING LAST EXPIRY AS THE ROLL OVER PREMIUMS HAD RISEN TO AS MUCH AS 0.4 PAISA. NOW THE PAIR HAS A VERY STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 54.70 AREA AND NOW IT IS TRADING ABOVE RS.55 MARK. LAST CLOSE IS 55.1025 AND NOW NEXT RESISTANCE IS AROUND 55.44. THE PAIR IS TRYING TO FORM A SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE PATTERN ON A WEEKLY CHART AND CONSECUTIVE CLOSES ABOVE 55.44 + WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 55.44 WILL ADD MORE FIRE AND THE PAIR MAY TOUCH ALL TIME HIGH. WE BELIEVE THE INVESTMENT IN USD-INR WILL FAR OUT PERFROM THE OTHER ASSEST CLASSES. WE WONT BE SURPRISED IF THE PAIR KISSES 60-62 LEVELS IN COMING DAYS.....

 

WE RECOMMEND TO LONG THE PAIR WITH CLOSING SL OF 54.54 TGTs 57.5 -57.8 IN SHORT TERM

BELOW IS THE DAILY CHART...

BELOW IS THE WEEKLY CHART:

DOLLAR INDEX 6413

THE INDEX HAVING CROSSES AN IMPORTANT RESISTANCE AROUND 82.5 KISSED 83 LEVELS. HOWEVER IT FAILED TO CROSS THE RESISTANCE AROUND 83.7 AND AGAIN RETRACED TO 82.5 LEVELS. THE INDEX HAS MAJOR SUPPORT AROUND 82 LEVELS AND AS LONG AS 82 LEVEL IS MAINTAINED THE VIEW REMAINS BULLISH. AS OF NOW WE BELIEVE THE INDEX IS SLIGHTLY IN A OVERBOUHGT ZONE AND MAY WITNESS CORRECTION.

USD-INR WEEKLY 9313

THE PAIR FORMED A BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN ON A WEEKLY CHART AND FAILED TO HOLD 55.35 LEVELS. BELOW 54.54 LEVELS THE PAIR LOOKS WEAK. TWO MORE CONSECUTIVE CLOSES BELOW 54.54 CAN LEAD THE PAIR TO 53.65. ON UPPER SIDE 54.8 IS THE RESISTANCE ABOVE THE SAID LEVEL IT CAN TGT 55.15-55.35 LEVELS. BELOW 54.54 SHORT POSITION CAN BE INITIATED WITH THE SL OF 54.8 FOR THE TGT OF 53.65. IMMEDIATE SUPPORT AT 54.2 AND 53.8

 

DOLLAR INDEX TO GAIN MOMENTUM

DOLLAR INDEX:

 

THE INDEX SUCCESSFULLY CROSSED THE WEEKLY RESISTANCE AROUND 81.7 AND KISSED THE GOLDEN RATIO AT 82.5..... LOOKING AT THE CHART WE BELIEVE THAT USD MAY GAIN STRENGTH AGAINST THE BASKET OF CURRENCIES IN COMING DAYS..... TWO OR MORE WEEKLY CLOSES ABOVE 82.5 CAN LEAD THE INDEX TO KISS 85 TO 85.5 LEVELS IN SHORT TERM......